News list for " Implied"
The governor of the Bank of Japan reiterated his commitment to stabilise the market, hinting at intervention in the bond market. A sharp rise in Japan's CPI boosted confidence in interest rate hikes and hedge funds restarted bullish bets on the yen. Click to view...
Trump's hint of "selective default" and Musk's frenzied takeover of the fiscal system could shake confidence in US institutions, which in turn could affect global financial stability. Click to view...
Gold prices are hovering near record highs last October, driven by Trump's hints of softening his stance on tariffs and calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Click to view...
The implied volatility of the pound rose sharply to 10% in one month, the highest level since the banking crisis in March 2023.
US President-elect Donald Trump has hinted that he will bypass the Senate's confirmation process to appoint members of his administration, which also appears to include replacing Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairperson Gary Gensler. In an X post on November 10, Trump said that only he has the right to choose which US senator will serve as Senate Majority Leader starting when the new Congress is sworn in in January 2025, and he hopes that potential majority leaders will agree to make...
Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands recently narrowed to an all-time low, suggesting that the market is about to experience a major price swing. Technical analyst Tony Severino pointed out that this "Bollinger Band contraction" phenomenon is usually accompanied by significant price movements and has led to several bull markets in history. For example, after the Bollinger Band contractions in April 2016 and July 2023, the bitcoin price rose significantly. However, the contractions do not indicate the speci...
Barclays said the S & P 500 implied volatility for the upcoming US election is 1.8 per cent, a level of risk that has been fully priced in by the market. Derivatives strategists such as Stefano Pascale said the VIX traded at about twice the S & P 500's actual volatility in a month, reflecting election-related price volatility. The VIX's ratio to the S & P 500's actual volatility is high compared with previous elections and is unlikely to rise further.
Matrixport published a chart saying that as implied volatility continues to be low, bitcoin traders need to establish corresponding positions to prepare for the possible bull market caused by Trump's victory. Bitcoin options expire on November 8, 2024, but the market has not seen extreme positions, indicating that...
U.S. interest rate futures imply that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 76 basis points by the end of 2024; it is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 196 basis points by October 2025.
On August 29th, according to a report by Jin Ten, the money market has been betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates in the near future, despite the fact that the President of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Block, has hinted that there will be no interest rate cut in the near future. However, data released this week showed that the Australian inflation rate in July was slightly higher than economists' expectations, and the interest rate cut bet began to fade. The market...
On August 28th, cryptocurrencies generally fell, Bitcoin fell below the 60,000 dollar mark, and the lowest was close to falling to the 58,000 dollar mark; in addition, Ethereum fell sharply, and the intraday decline expanded to 10%. Institutional analysts believe that major tokens are digesting the boost received last week from Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell's hint that the Federal Reserve will lower the base rate from a two-decade high.
The dollar fell to its lowest level since a near rate rise on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell all but signalled an end to the Fed's fight against inflation. Data showed the dollar hit a 52-week low against a basket of currencies, extending a recent decline caused by expectations of interest rate cuts in the coming months. A change in policy could change the direction of capital flows in global markets. However, a weaker dollar tends to help US companies sell goods and serv...
One-week implied volatility, a key indicator of market sentiment, has been relatively stable at around 50 per cent at the start of the year after briefly surging in early January and mid-February, according to Glassnode. However, when Bitcoin took over in April...
Fed funds futures extended their gains, implying an 89% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September.
Derek Halpenny, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ, said the dollar was unlikely to continue falling even if the Fed hinted that a rate cut could come soon. Recent price movements suggest that the link between Treasury yields and the exchange rate is decoupling, while fragile risk appetite supports demand for safe-haven assets such as the dollar. Therefore, any dollar depreciation caused by the signal of a rate cut will not last long, especially if the September rate cut has been fully digested by the...
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